Betting Lines
| Spread | ARMY -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +14 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | ARMY -1.4 (+15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-22.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARMY -2.0 (+16.0) | 141.6 (-19.6) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARMY -3.0 (+17.0) | 144.2 (-22.2) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARMY -2.7 (+16.7) | 144.4 (-22.4) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARMY -2.3 (+16.3) | 143.5 (-21.5) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | LAF 83 – 77 ARMY |
| Feb 7, 2026 | LAF 63 – 60 ARMY |
| Feb 26, 2025 | LAF 81 – 65 ARMY |
| Jan 15, 2025 | ARMY 70 – 68 LAF |
| Feb 3, 2024 | LAF 64 – 56 ARMY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-9 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#327) | -5.4 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.49 (#335) | -0.58 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.34 (#339) | -1.08 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#313) | 0.484 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 12.5% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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