Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | LAF -190 ARMY +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +16 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -3.3 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -2.0 (+14.0) | 141.2 (+4.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -3.4 (+12.6) | 141.1 (+4.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -1.8 (+14.2) | 139.7 (+6.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -2.0 (+14.0) | 141.4 (+4.6) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | LAF 83 – 77 ARMY |
| Feb 7, 2026 | LAF 63 – 60 ARMY |
| Jan 15, 2025 | ARMY 70 – 68 LAF |
| Feb 3, 2024 | LAF 64 – 56 ARMY |
| Jan 4, 2024 | LAF 52 – 47 ARMY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 3-14 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#286) | -8.0 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#314) | -0.75 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#297) | -1.22 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#319) | 0.489 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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