Betting Lines
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | BU +100 NAVY -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +7 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -0.2 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -0.3 (-6.7) | 126.0 (+11.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -0.3 (-6.7) | 131.6 (+5.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -0.6 (-6.4) | 133.7 (+3.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -0.3 (-6.7) | 129.6 (+7.4) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | BU 73 – 72 NAVY |
| Jan 29, 2026 | NAVY 58 – 50 BU |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NAVY 82 – 77 BU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NAVY 86 – 78 BU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | BU 87 – 65 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 8-8 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 60.8 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#195) | 2.8 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#199) | 0.44 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#207) | 0.37 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#199) | 0.494 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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