Everybody's in despair, every girl and boy. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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86–28 on winners spread MAE 9.1 114 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Temple @ Cincinnati +5.6 135.4 69% 69–71 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Campbell +5.7 144.4 70% 49–64 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ VCU +2.5 134.4 59% 64–67 ✓
UMass Lowell @ UAlbany +6.3 140.7 72% 79–71 ✗
Tulane @ UCF +5.4 129.6 69% 49–53 ✓
Merrimack @ Central Connecticut -2.4 132.4 41% 72–52 ✓
Milwaukee @ Wright State +20.5 143.0 97% 81–92 ✓
Oakland @ Robert Morris -0.2 157.2 49% 82–88 ✗
Winthrop @ Radford -4.1 146.6 36% 55–47 ✓
Bellarmine @ North Alabama -6.3 144.0 28% 66–64 ✓
Lipscomb @ Jacksonville -3.3 134.1 38% 60–66 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ UTSA +2.4 150.3 59% 80–84 ✓
Akron @ Miami (OH) -4.7 140.3 33% 83–76 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Bakersfield +10.2 134.4 82% 71–76 ✓
UC Irvine @ UC Riverside +3.6 121.0 63% 65–86 ✓
UAB @ Louisiana Tech -1.0 131.8 46% 58–70 ✗
Western Michigan @ Buffalo +16.7 143.9 94% 54–86 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Clemson +3.2 133.4 61% 72–74 ✓
Omaha @ Kansas City +9.2 131.0 80% 52–62 ✓
Denver @ Western Illinois +9.8 158.6 81% 69–75 ✓
Rice @ Western Kentucky +8.0 151.2 77% 71–77 ✓
North Texas @ Southern Miss -9.6 122.8 19% 65–49 ✓
Utah Tech @ Utah Valley +13.9 148.1 90% 72–87 ✓
Little Rock @ Arkansas State -2.2 149.4 42% 62–73 ✗
Illinois @ Nebraska -16.3 148.0 7% 77–72 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Cleveland State +1.9 137.6 57% 89–83 ✗
Florida International @ UTEP +10.4 147.9 83% 59–75 ✓
New Mexico State @ Seattle U -1.3 135.7 45% 72–83 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Hawai'i -5.8 141.8 30% 59–50 ✓
Indiana @ Ohio State +6.9 144.2 73% 59–78 ✓
Wake Forest @ Florida State +11.7 144.1 86% 85–92 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Drake -1.4 135.5 45% 81–54 ✓
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State +16.7 141.7 94% 60–67 ✓
UConn @ Xavier +4.1 138.1 65% 80–72 ✗
UIC @ IU Indianapolis +2.4 141.8 59% 81–88 ✓
The Citadel @ Chattanooga +7.7 163.8 76% 66–70 ✓
Oklahoma @ West Virginia +2.6 145.6 59% 91–90 ✗
Canisius @ Quinnipiac +0.9 137.1 53% 89–70 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State +8.1 142.2 77% 72–51 ✗
Auburn @ Kentucky +2.1 145.8 58% 80–82 ✓
Samford @ VMI +6.9 163.1 74% 56–85 ✓
Northeastern @ Towson -6.0 135.7 29% 76–67 ✓
Elon @ Charleston +6.8 134.0 73% 53–71 ✓
Butler @ Georgetown +4.1 131.2 64% 63–78 ✓
TCU @ Texas +12.6 144.9 87% 55–70 ✓
Tennessee @ LSU -1.7 148.1 44% 65–78 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Lafayette +3.4 146.6 62% 94–97 ✓
Boston University @ Holy Cross +2.7 142.5 60% 65–82 ✓
Stony Brook @ Vermont +14.3 133.0 90% 78–86 ✓
NJIT @ Hartford +3.1 132.3 61% 67–57 ✗
Boston College @ Syracuse +11.8 154.1 86% 67–75 ✓
Norfolk State @ Morgan State +6.1 152.7 71% 74–69 ✗
Oregon @ Arizona +3.9 148.1 64% 63–61 ✗
Bowling Green @ Toledo +10.4 159.6 83% 88–81 ✗
Western Carolina @ Furman +15.4 152.4 92% 70–88 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Mercer -0.8 142.7 47% 77–74 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Kent State +23.4 138.9 98% 58–80 ✓
Hofstra @ James Madison +3.5 150.0 62% 89–93 ✓
Idaho @ Idaho State +12.7 126.7 88% 58–64 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Montana State -3.1 152.8 39% 85–69 ✓
Iowa @ Michigan State -9.3 157.9 20% 88–58 ✓
Sacramento State @ California Baptist +1.0 155.9 54% 71–83 ✓
UMass Lowell @ UAlbany +6.3 140.7 72% 69–81 ✓
Fresno State @ Air Force -3.9 124.6 36% 67–64 ✓
Milwaukee @ Wright State +20.5 143.0 97% 82–92 ✓
UT Arlington @ Texas State +6.5 127.4 72% 68–79 ✓
Kansas @ Iowa State -13.4 144.4 11% 64–50 ✓
Georgia @ Alabama +15.1 160.2 91% 82–115 ✓
Saint Louis @ Fordham -19.1 125.5 4% 68–40 ✓
South Dakota @ North Dakota -8.9 141.9 21% 76–85 ✗
Southern @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -8.6 138.8 22% 73–71 ✓
Arkansas @ Missouri -0.4 152.9 49% 86–81 ✓
Stetson @ Kennesaw State -6.5 131.2 28% 75–83 ✗
Colgate @ Army -9.6 148.8 19% 84–74 ✓
Illinois State @ Southern Illinois +5.0 142.9 68% 80–55 ✗
Duke @ NC State +1.8 152.8 57% 69–53 ✗
UAB @ Louisiana Tech -1.0 131.8 46% 64–69 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Marshall +19.8 143.9 96% 85–96 ✓
Charlotte @ Old Dominion +3.2 128.5 62% 45–64 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UTSA +2.4 150.3 59% 75–86 ✓
Texas Southern @ Grambling -3.1 138.6 39% 75–73 ✓
Wofford @ East Tennessee State +2.5 134.8 59% 49–71 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Davis +8.4 161.9 78% 76–78 ✓
Weber State @ Montana -1.9 140.6 43% 91–82 ✓
Villanova @ Creighton -0.8 150.9 47% 70–86 ✗
Northwestern @ Rutgers +7.6 140.8 75% 50–64 ✓
Manhattan @ Iona +11.6 127.4 85% 77–70 ✗
Fairfield @ Saint Peter's +14.2 125.6 90% 55–50 ✗
McNeese @ Northwestern State +8.3 157.7 78% 66–69 ✓
South Dakota State @ Oral Roberts -2.6 162.7 41% 86–103 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Youngstown State +6.0 156.5 71% 70–72 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Green Bay -0.0 146.6 50% 71–66 ✓
Oakland @ Robert Morris -0.2 157.2 49% 86–81 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Jacksonville State +9.8 140.6 81% 60–80 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Tennessee State -8.8 148.1 21% 93–73 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee Tech -0.1 141.7 50% 67–80 ✗
Morehead State @ Belmont +9.5 140.4 81% 58–73 ✓
North Florida @ Liberty +15.2 137.3 92% 60–80 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Abilene Christian +22.6 130.5 98% 55–83 ✓
South Alabama @ Troy -2.7 137.6 40% 58–51 ✓
Louisiana @ UL Monroe -3.3 138.0 38% 88–72 ✓
North Texas @ Southern Miss -9.6 122.8 19% 68–56 ✓
Alcorn State @ Mississippi Valley State -15.7 153.4 8% 70–56 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Alabama State -7.7 129.4 24% 58–72 ✗
Gonzaga @ San Francisco -15.4 158.4 8% 100–61 ✓
North Carolina @ Virginia +9.3 129.8 80% 48–60 ✓
Bradley @ Missouri State +3.0 135.8 61% 58–80 ✓
Ole Miss @ South Carolina -2.6 137.8 41% 81–74 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Austin Peay +7.7 143.6 76% 63–78 ✓
Lipscomb @ Jacksonville -3.3 134.1 38% 71–69 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Sam Houston +12.0 154.4 86% 57–97 ✓
Arkansas State @ Little Rock +7.3 149.4 75% 67–65 ✗
Lamar @ Houston Christian +5.1 149.2 68% 75–80 ✓
Rice @ Western Kentucky +8.0 151.2 77% 66–89 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.