And of all my friends, you've been the best to me. / Soon will be the day when I repay you handsomely. "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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27–10 on winners spread MAE 8.9 37 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Carolina Upstate @ Campbell +6.2 144.5 71% 71–72 ✓
Iowa State @ Kansas +16.9 142.4 94% 64–97 ✓
Colorado @ Stanford -3.6 139.7 37% 69–51 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Saint Francis +3.5 158.0 63% 70–67 ✗
Merrimack @ Central Connecticut -0.1 135.8 50% 62–46 ✓
Long Island University @ Mount St. Mary's +3.5 131.1 62% 60–66 ✓
Texas State @ UT Arlington -1.3 128.6 45% 63–56 ✓
Troy @ South Alabama +8.1 136.7 77% 70–73 ✓
Weber State @ Montana -4.6 139.2 34% 67–80 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Montana State -0.9 150.0 47% 93–77 ✓
Oregon State @ Arizona +12.4 143.5 87% 61–70 ✓
UL Monroe @ Louisiana +10.0 137.4 82% 72–66 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Jacksonville State +10.8 142.6 84% 64–76 ✓
Oregon @ Arizona State -3.3 154.5 38% 75–64 ✓
Fresno State @ Air Force -3.6 123.6 37% 69–63 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee Tech +1.0 140.3 54% 81–63 ✗
Morehead State @ Tennessee State -8.3 122.4 22% 79–66 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Belmont +11.6 166.8 85% 74–92 ✓
Idaho @ Idaho State +10.8 128.9 84% 43–69 ✓
USC @ Washington -15.4 147.5 8% 69–54 ✓
UNLV @ Boise State +14.4 144.4 90% 66–78 ✓
UCLA @ Washington State -4.6 134.6 34% 73–81 ✗
UIC @ IU Indianapolis -0.1 139.9 50% 69–89 ✗
Canisius @ Quinnipiac +2.7 136.2 60% 74–67 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Longwood -0.5 130.2 48% 71–78 ✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Saint Francis +3.5 158.0 63% 66–80 ✓
Long Island University @ Mount St. Mary's +3.5 131.1 62% 46–64 ✓
Presbyterian @ Hampton +2.9 134.1 60% 57–62 ✓
Manhattan @ Iona +10.4 122.6 83% 67–85 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Youngstown State +5.1 157.2 68% 70–84 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Green Bay -0.6 144.5 48% 82–86 ✗
Stetson @ Kennesaw State -5.5 130.3 31% 74–61 ✓
Charleston Southern @ High Point +10.2 134.3 82% 69–68 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Murray State +10.5 136.7 83% 60–80 ✓
North Florida @ Liberty +15.4 137.7 92% 61–73 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Marshall +18.8 138.2 96% 79–107 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Davis +9.9 168.8 82% 66–68 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.