Betting Lines
| Spread | GWEB -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | LONG +210 GWEB -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +7 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | GWEB -0.1 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -0.8 (+6.2) | 129.7 (+19.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -0.3 (+6.7) | 127.9 (+21.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -0.4 (+6.6) | 130.6 (+18.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -0.7 (+6.3) | 129.9 (+19.1) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | LONG 86 – 66 GWEB |
| Jan 22, 2026 | LONG 91 – 56 GWEB |
| Feb 20, 2025 | LONG 90 – 77 GWEB |
| Jan 30, 2025 | GWEB 92 – 87 LONG |
| Mar 1, 2024 | GWEB 72 – 69 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-17 | 11-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 7-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.3 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#241) | -2.1 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#299) | -1.81 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#283) | -1.92 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#264) | 0.440 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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