Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | AF +188 FRES -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +6 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | FRES -3.2 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -3.0 (-3.0) | 129.3 (+2.7) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -3.3 (-2.7) | 125.1 (+6.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -4.4 (-1.6) | 128.2 (+3.8) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -2.9 (-3.1) | 130.7 (+1.3) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | FRES 93 – 63 AF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | FRES 79 – 62 AF |
| Feb 22, 2025 | AF 72 – 69 FRES |
| Jan 18, 2025 | FRES 74 – 65 AF |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FRES 68 – 66 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-20 | 12-12 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 9-11 |
| Home | 3-8 | 7-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.7 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -11.0 (#322) | -5.3 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#260) | -0.18 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#279) | -0.20 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#280) | 0.482 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 23.8 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 4.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 15.0% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.5% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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