Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | WASH +650 USC -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WASH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +15 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -15.3 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (-24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -13.6 (-1.4) | 146.4 (-23.4) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -12.7 (-2.3) | 145.5 (-22.5) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -12.6 (-2.4) | 144.2 (-21.2) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -12.4 (-2.6) | 144.4 (-21.4) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | WASH 83 – 79 USC |
| Mar 5, 2026 | WASH 91 – 72 USC |
| Dec 6, 2025 | WASH 84 – 76 USC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | USC 92 – 61 WASH |
| Dec 7, 2024 | USC 85 – 61 WASH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WASH | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-21 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 15-5 |
| Home | 4-7 | 13-2 |
| Away | 1-9 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 65.1 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#210) | 15.3 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#243) | 2.56 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#234) | 3.59 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#230) | 0.627 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WASH | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 37.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 43.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 61.7% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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