Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | UCD -333 LBSU +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +2 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -9.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.3 (-34.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -7.9 (-5.9) | 159.8 (-25.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -6.7 (-4.7) | 154.4 (-20.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -7.4 (-5.4) | 157.0 (-23.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -8.3 (-6.3) | 157.5 (-23.5) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UCD 76 – 70 LBSU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | UCD 71 – 54 LBSU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UCD 73 – 65 LBSU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | LBSU 84 – 73 UCD |
| Mar 17, 2024 | LBSU 74 – 70 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Conference | 6-4 | 4-8 |
| Home | 4-3 | 4-3 |
| Away | 4-3 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 79.4 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#235) | -11.4 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#245) | -0.63 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#252) | -1.50 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#248) | 0.451 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 20.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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