Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | USA -225 TROY +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +3 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | USA -7.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -6.4 (-3.4) | 135.0 (+8.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -5.3 (-2.3) | 134.9 (+8.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -6.2 (-3.2) | 135.9 (+7.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -6.3 (-3.3) | 135.3 (+7.7) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | USA 65 – 54 TROY |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TROY 59 – 49 USA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | TROY 65 – 55 USA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | USA 64 – 63 TROY |
| Jan 27, 2024 | TROY 83 – 79 USA |
Game Analysis
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