Lord Lucan is missing. "Lord Lucan is Missing" - The Dodgems
Metro Conference · M&T Bank Arena · February 12, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread QUIN -4.5 Away covered
O/U 140.5 Over
Money QUIN -200 / CAN +210
Model Predictions
Spread Total QUIN win
Actual CAN +7 141 Lost
Massey QUIN -3.4 (-10.4) — —
Massey Totals — 136.1 (+4.9) —
Bradley-Terry — — 30% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 34% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML QUIN -2.5 (-9.5) 136.3 (+4.7) 63% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ QUIN -1.0 (-8.0) 138.4 (+2.6) 50% ✓
Baseline Plus ML QUIN -3.6 (-10.6) 138.5 (+2.5) 58% ✗
Baseline ML QUIN -3.0 (-10.0) 136.3 (+4.7) 64% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 1, 2026 QUIN 67 – 63 CAN
Feb 6, 2026 QUIN 75 – 60 CAN
Feb 7, 2025 QUIN 89 – 71 CAN
Mar 13, 2024 QUIN 76 – 52 CAN
Feb 4, 2024 QUIN 88 – 63 CAN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings QUIN CAN
Overall 9-13 7-6
Conference 7-10 7-5
Home 8-5 3-1
Away 1-5 4-4
Neutral 0-3 0-1
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 67.5 70.4
Avg Pts Against 69.0 71.2
Massey -4.8 (#245) -5.6 (#258)
Bradley-Terry -1.08 (#257) 0.21 (#161)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.11 (#245) 0.05 (#163)
RPI 0.425 (#287) 0.543 (#95)
Shooting & Four Factors QUIN CAN
FG% 41.1% 39.2%
3PT% 32.4% 29.5%
REB / G 36.9 34.5
OREB / G 7.4 10.3
AST / TO 0.81 1.04
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.4% 45.8%
TOV% 21.2% 19.5%
ORB% 21.0% 26.8%
FT Rate 26.9% 23.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 42.5% 52.5%
Opp TOV% 16.1% 21.5%
DRB% 71.4% 74.0%
Opp FT Rate 22.6% 19.9%

Game Analysis

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