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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
27–8 on winners
spread MAE 8.1
35 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Houston
@
South Florida
|
-12.6 | 128.5 | 13% | 82–65 | ✓ |
Virginia
@
Georgia Tech
|
-5.5 | 135.7 | 31% | 57–49 | ✓ |
Bradley
@
Valparaiso
|
-3.7 | 131.4 | 37% | 76–52 | ✓ |
Northern Iowa
@
Drake
|
+16.1 | 148.3 | 93% | 59–80 | ✓ |
Wake Forest
@
Boston College
|
-0.1 | 146.4 | 50% | 69–65 | ✓ |
Wichita State
@
UCF
|
-0.1 | 147.3 | 50% | 61–60 | ✓ |
Fordham
@
George Mason
|
+10.4 | 119.4 | 83% | 45–77 | ✓ |
Chattanooga
@
Wofford
|
+5.8 | 140.5 | 70% | 78–66 | ✗ |
East Tennessee State
@
The Citadel
|
-6.1 | 157.9 | 29% | 71–79 | ✗ |
VMI
@
Western Carolina
|
-2.9 | 160.0 | 40% | 72–74 | ✗ |
Rutgers
@
Iowa
|
+7.9 | 157.1 | 76% | 66–79 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
+15.9 | 145.3 | 93% | 68–80 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
Sam Houston
|
+13.5 | 143.7 | 89% | 61–79 | ✓ |
Georgia
@
Tennessee
|
+14.7 | 142.9 | 91% | 81–89 | ✓ |
Southern Illinois
@
Missouri State
|
+9.0 | 143.4 | 79% | 53–65 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
Incarnate Word
|
+3.4 | 145.7 | 62% | 68–67 | ✗ |
Houston Christian
@
Abilene Christian
|
+20.7 | 141.8 | 97% | 59–88 | ✓ |
Nicholls
@
Lamar
|
-8.5 | 143.5 | 22% | 76–71 | ✓ |
Mercer
@
Samford
|
-2.6 | 162.4 | 41% | 77–70 | ✓ |
Marquette
@
Villanova
|
+10.9 | 141.7 | 84% | 64–96 | ✓ |
Missouri
@
Ole Miss
|
-0.7 | 132.8 | 48% | 59–80 | ✗ |
Rhode Island
@
Saint Louis
|
+7.7 | 144.6 | 76% | 60–67 | ✓ |
LSU
@
Mississippi State
|
-0.5 | 151.4 | 48% | 94–80 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
Nebraska
|
-10.6 | 137.1 | 17% | 61–48 | ✓ |
San José State
@
San Diego State
|
+32.6 | 147.3 | 100% | 55–77 | ✓ |
Gardner-Webb
@
Longwood
|
-1.0 | 132.7 | 46% | 54–57 | ✗ |
UT Martin
@
Austin Peay
|
+14.2 | 146.9 | 90% | 50–71 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Minnesota
|
-0.1 | 142.5 | 50% | 68–71 | ✗ |
Portland
@
Pacific
|
+18.1 | 147.3 | 95% | 57–84 | ✓ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Wagner
|
+3.8 | 145.5 | 64% | 72–76 | ✓ |
Charleston Southern
@
High Point
|
+10.7 | 132.5 | 84% | 73–77 | ✓ |
Utah
@
California
|
-5.2 | 131.3 | 32% | 76–75 | ✓ |
Winthrop
@
Radford
|
-2.6 | 147.0 | 41% | 80–64 | ✓ |
Presbyterian
@
Hampton
|
+5.2 | 131.3 | 68% | 85–70 | ✗ |
Georgia Southern
@
Georgia State
|
+11.0 | 145.8 | 84% | 75–79 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.