Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | MISS -125 MIZ +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +21 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -0.9 (+21.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -0.8 (+21.8) | 134.9 (+4.1) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -1.2 (+19.8) | 133.2 (+5.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -0.0 (+21.0) | 136.2 (+2.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -0.1 (+20.9) | 135.2 (+3.8) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | MISS 76 – 69 MIZ |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 75 MISS |
| Mar 3, 2024 | MISS 84 – 78 MIZ |
| Feb 18, 2024 | MISS 79 – 76 MIZ |
| Mar 4, 2023 | MIZ 82 – 77 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-12 | 16-10 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#60) | 12.7 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#78) | 3.08 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#82) | 3.61 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#86) | 0.650 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.8% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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