Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -450 FOR +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +32 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -10.9 (+21.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -8.8 (+23.2) | 130.0 (-8.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -8.7 (+23.3) | 129.1 (-7.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -9.0 (+23.0) | 127.2 (-5.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -8.7 (+23.3) | 128.8 (-6.8) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | GMU 67 – 58 FOR |
| Feb 27, 2025 | GMU 74 – 64 FOR |
| Feb 28, 2024 | FOR 61 – 60 GMU |
| Mar 2, 2023 | GMU 64 – 58 FOR |
| Mar 10, 2022 | FOR 54 – 49 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-9 | 2-12 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 2-11 |
| Home | 7-3 | 2-5 |
| Away | 3-4 | 0-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 51.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 66.6 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#167) | -8.4 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#154) | -1.11 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#159) | -1.69 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#147) | 0.417 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 36.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 42.6% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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