Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -600 MARQ +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +32 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -10.8 (+21.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -10.5 (+21.5) | 142.4 (+17.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -9.5 (+22.5) | 137.4 (+22.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -11.7 (+20.3) | 138.7 (+21.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -10.3 (+21.7) | 141.4 (+18.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | VILL 77 – 74 MARQ |
| Jan 10, 2026 | VILL 76 – 73 MARQ |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VILL 81 – 66 MARQ |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MARQ 87 – 74 VILL |
| Mar 15, 2024 | MARQ 71 – 65 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 13-14 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 8-11 |
| Home | 9-0 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-4 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#17) | 6.3 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.11 (#6) | 1.09 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.73 (#11) | 1.41 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#20) | 0.504 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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