Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | MSST -110 LSU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +14 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | LSU -0.8 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+22.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -1.7 (-15.7) | 146.7 (+27.3) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -0.8 (-14.8) | 147.4 (+26.6) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -1.8 (-15.8) | 149.6 (+24.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -2.2 (-16.2) | 146.3 (+27.7) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | MSST 80 – 66 LSU |
| Mar 12, 2025 | MSST 91 – 62 LSU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MSST 81 – 69 LSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MSST 70 – 60 LSU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MSST 87 – 67 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 19-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-6 |
| Home | 9-6 | 11-2 |
| Away | 5-4 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-5 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#69) | 11.7 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#92) | 1.76 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#79) | 2.31 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#118) | 0.584 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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