Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | CIT +300 ETSU -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIT +8 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -6.2 (+14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -3.9 (+11.9) | 154.4 (-4.4) | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -4.3 (+12.3) | 150.5 (-0.5) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -4.6 (+12.6) | 152.1 (-2.1) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -4.2 (+12.2) | 155.0 (-5.0) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ETSU 83 – 76 CIT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ETSU 84 – 55 CIT |
| Dec 30, 2025 | ETSU 74 – 49 CIT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ETSU 81 – 66 CIT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ETSU 70 – 52 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-12 | 13-12 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 8-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 1-8 | 3-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.3 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#233) | 4.3 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#199) | 0.57 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#192) | 1.06 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#214) | 0.553 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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