Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | ACU -2500 HCU +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +29 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | ACU -20.4 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -17.7 (+11.3) | 146.4 (+0.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -17.8 (+11.2) | 147.3 (-0.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -20.3 (+8.7) | 148.3 (-1.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -19.5 (+9.5) | 146.3 (+0.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2021 | ACU 66 – 63 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-5 | 6-19 |
| Conference | 13-2 | 4-11 |
| Home | 13-0 | 4-6 |
| Away | 5-4 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.6 | 81.1 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#81) | -10.5 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#82) | -2.72 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#87) | -3.29 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#103) | 0.400 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.7% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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