Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | MOST -250 SIU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +12 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -9.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (-25.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -7.3 (+4.7) | 139.8 (-21.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -6.9 (+5.1) | 135.4 (-17.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -8.2 (+3.8) | 138.3 (-20.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -7.9 (+4.1) | 139.0 (-21.0) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2025 | SIU 73 – 51 MOST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SIU 88 – 78 MOST |
| Feb 1, 2024 | MOST 76 – 75 SIU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | SIU 54 – 51 MOST |
| Feb 5, 2023 | SIU 73 – 53 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-7 | 12-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#112) | -2.2 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#102) | -0.01 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#120) | -0.65 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#130) | 0.490 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 5.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 18.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.