Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | SAM +188 MER -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +7 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -2.9 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -1.5 (-5.5) | 156.0 (-9.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -1.5 (-5.5) | 151.9 (-4.9) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -2.0 (-5.0) | 157.0 (-10.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -1.7 (-5.3) | 156.4 (-9.4) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MER 89 – 86 SAM |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SAM 69 – 49 MER |
| Feb 6, 2025 | SAM 100 – 79 MER |
| Jan 16, 2025 | SAM 75 – 74 MER |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SAM 70 – 57 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-13 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 2-9 | 8-9 |
| Home | 4-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 2-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#219) | 2.2 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#225) | 0.49 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#210) | 0.68 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#211) | 0.520 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.