Betting Lines
| Spread | MINN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | MINN -138 PUR +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MINN +3 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | MINN -0.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MINN -2.1 (+0.9) | 139.2 (-0.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MINN -0.2 (+2.8) | 136.1 (+2.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MINN -1.3 (+1.7) | 139.9 (-0.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MINN -1.3 (+1.7) | 139.2 (-0.2) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2025 | PUR 85 – 57 MINN |
| Jan 3, 2025 | PUR 81 – 61 MINN |
| Feb 16, 2024 | PUR 84 – 76 MINN |
| Jan 20, 2023 | PUR 61 – 39 MINN |
| Dec 4, 2022 | PUR 89 – 70 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-15 | 18-10 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 13-6 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-1 |
| Away | 0-10 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#42) | 13.0 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#30) | 2.59 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.39 (#21) | 3.57 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#61) | 0.599 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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