Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | WAG +100 FDU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | WAG -3.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -3.0 (+1.0) | 148.7 (-0.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -3.2 (+0.8) | 145.2 (+2.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -3.0 (+1.0) | 148.7 (-0.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -2.6 (+1.4) | 150.1 (-2.1) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | WAG 75 – 72 FDU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | FDU 68 – 61 WAG |
| Feb 8, 2025 | FDU 69 – 58 WAG |
| Jan 5, 2025 | FDU 71 – 59 WAG |
| Mar 2, 2024 | FDU 57 – 54 WAG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-7 | 9-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Away | 6-4 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#221) | -4.5 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#179) | -0.17 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#178) | -0.41 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#160) | 0.494 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.3% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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