Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | GT +188 UVA -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +8 | 106 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -4.8 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (-29.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -3.3 (-4.7) | 135.5 (-29.5) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -1.9 (-6.1) | 130.7 (-24.7) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -2.3 (-5.7) | 134.5 (-28.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -2.8 (-5.2) | 133.9 (-27.9) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | UVA 94 – 68 GT |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GT 66 – 60 UVA |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UVA 75 – 61 GT |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UVA 72 – 57 GT |
| Jan 20, 2024 | UVA 75 – 66 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-9 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 11-6 | 13-4 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-1 |
| Away | 4-5 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 58.2 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#64) | 16.0 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#69) | 2.78 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#61) | 4.04 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#133) | 0.617 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 58.0% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 77.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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