Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | USF +750 HOU -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +17 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -12.4 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.4 (+18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -11.6 (-5.4) | 133.7 (+13.3) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -10.4 (-6.6) | 130.7 (+16.3) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -11.4 (-5.6) | 131.4 (+15.6) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -10.5 (-6.5) | 131.0 (+16.0) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 12, 2023 | HOU 83 – 77 USF |
| Jan 19, 2022 | HOU 74 – 55 USF |
| Jan 6, 2022 | HOU 83 – 66 USF |
| Feb 28, 2021 | HOU 98 – 52 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-13 | 28-4 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 14-3 |
| Home | 4-6 | 15-0 |
| Away | 3-4 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 58.6 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#126) | 17.6 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#85) | 3.17 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#95) | 4.26 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#111) | 0.632 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 15.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 40.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 41.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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