Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Over |
| Money | USF +700 HOU -1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +17 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -20.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 115.1 (+33.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -16.6 (-0.4) | 129.6 (+19.4) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -13.5 (-3.5) | 126.7 (+22.3) | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -15.1 (-1.9) | 124.6 (+24.4) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -17.6 (+0.6) | 127.4 (+21.6) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 12, 2023 | HOU 83 – 77 USF |
| Jan 19, 2022 | HOU 74 – 55 USF |
| Feb 28, 2021 | HOU 98 – 52 USF |
| Feb 11, 2021 | HOU 82 – 65 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 32-6 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 15-3 |
| Home | 6-10 | 16-1 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 9-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.5 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 58.8 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#244) | 20.8 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#265) | 2.77 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#266) | 4.04 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#281) | 0.627 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 23.0% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.9% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 39.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 25.7% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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