Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -2000 USF +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +46 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -20.8 (+25.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.0 (+19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -19.1 (+26.9) | 135.5 (+14.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -17.1 (+28.9) | 132.7 (+17.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -17.8 (+28.2) | 136.4 (+13.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -18.6 (+27.4) | 137.4 (+12.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 12, 2023 | HOU 83 – 77 USF |
| Jan 19, 2022 | HOU 74 – 55 USF |
| Jan 6, 2022 | HOU 83 – 66 USF |
| Feb 11, 2021 | HOU 82 – 65 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 9-13 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 4-10 |
| Home | 15-0 | 4-6 |
| Away | 5-3 | 3-4 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 18.8 (#6) | 0.3 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#7) | 0.49 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.87 (#8) | 0.56 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#5) | 0.504 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 39.6% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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