Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | VAL +150 BRAD -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +24 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | BRAD -3.2 (-20.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -1.5 (-22.5) | 135.8 (-7.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -2.5 (-21.5) | 134.4 (-6.4) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -1.5 (-22.5) | 135.7 (-7.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -2.1 (-21.9) | 135.8 (-7.8) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BRAD 90 – 84 VAL |
| Feb 19, 2026 | VAL 79 – 72 BRAD |
| Feb 4, 2026 | BRAD 72 – 65 VAL |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRAD 70 – 65 VAL |
| Feb 27, 2025 | BRAD 76 – 65 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-18 | 12-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 6-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.3 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 68.1 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#217) | 2.6 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#244) | -0.19 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#238) | -0.37 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#256) | 0.498 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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