Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -2500 AMCC +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +12 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -15.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -12.6 (-0.6) | 140.2 (+7.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -12.3 (-0.3) | 145.8 (+2.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -13.5 (-1.5) | 146.9 (+1.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -14.6 (-2.6) | 145.2 (+2.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | SFA 60 – 58 AMCC |
| Feb 17, 2026 | SFA 78 – 68 AMCC |
| Dec 18, 2025 | SFA 69 – 60 AMCC |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SFA 78 – 64 AMCC |
| Dec 7, 2024 | AMCC 67 – 48 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-5 | 5-19 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 2-13 |
| Home | 10-1 | 4-8 |
| Away | 6-4 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 63.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#165) | -13.2 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#177) | -4.55 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#200) | -6.34 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#184) | 0.375 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.4% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.3% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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