Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | RAD +220 WIN -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +16 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -3.1 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -2.3 (-13.7) | 143.6 (+0.4) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -1.7 (-14.3) | 139.5 (+4.5) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -2.1 (-13.9) | 144.4 (-0.4) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -2.3 (-13.7) | 145.4 (-1.4) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | WIN 80 – 78 RAD |
| Jan 21, 2026 | WIN 76 – 75 RAD |
| Feb 12, 2025 | WIN 78 – 74 RAD |
| Jan 4, 2025 | RAD 87 – 67 WIN |
| Feb 16, 2024 | WIN 85 – 69 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-12 | 23-2 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 17-1 |
| Home | 9-5 | 11-1 |
| Away | 6-6 | 10-0 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#170) | 5.2 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#214) | 1.58 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#216) | 2.44 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#151) | 0.567 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 78.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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