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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
7–8 on winners
spread MAE 7.8
15 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Penn State
@
Michigan State
|
-3.6 | 147.1 | 37% | 58–60 | ✗ |
Arkansas
@
Kentucky
|
-3.3 | 142.3 | 38% | 81–80 | ✓ |
Kent State
@
Bowling Green
|
-2.8 | 160.8 | 40% | 71–67 | ✓ |
Texas
@
Kansas State
|
-15.5 | 138.8 | 8% | 80–77 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Vanderbilt
|
-4.2 | 157.4 | 35% | 73–67 | ✓ |
West Virginia
@
Texas Tech
|
+5.0 | 140.7 | 68% | 82–71 | ✗ |
Creighton
@
Georgetown
|
-6.2 | 153.0 | 29% | 63–48 | ✓ |
St. John's
@
Butler
|
-3.0 | 143.1 | 39% | 73–76 | ✗ |
Iowa State
@
TCU
|
+7.9 | 141.8 | 77% | 76–79 | ✓ |
UConn
@
Providence
|
-2.1 | 136.9 | 42% | 59–70 | ✗ |
Pepperdine
@
San Francisco
|
+7.5 | 148.9 | 75% | 76–68 | ✗ |
Tulane
@
Tulsa
|
+7.2 | 123.9 | 74% | 58–48 | ✗ |
Furman
@
UNC Greensboro
|
-0.9 | 140.8 | 47% | 58–64 | ✗ |
Indiana
@
Northwestern
|
-2.6 | 140.8 | 41% | 79–76 | ✓ |
Old Dominion
@
Charlotte
|
+1.9 | 125.5 | 57% | 78–76 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.