Betting Lines
| Spread | BTLR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | BTLR -110 SJU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BTLR +3 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -2.6 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -2.5 (+5.5) | 141.1 (+7.9) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -1.7 (+4.7) | 140.2 (+8.8) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -2.7 (+5.7) | 143.4 (+5.6) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -1.5 (+4.5) | 142.4 (+6.6) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | SJU 92 – 70 BTLR |
| Jan 7, 2026 | SJU 84 – 70 BTLR |
| Mar 13, 2025 | SJU 78 – 57 BTLR |
| Feb 27, 2025 | SJU 76 – 70 BTLR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SJU 70 – 62 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-15 | 16-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 10-9 |
| Home | 8-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 1-9 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#124) | 8.0 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#139) | 1.79 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#113) | 2.36 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#187) | 0.557 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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