Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UK -110 ARK +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +1 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -4.1 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (+18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -2.4 (+1.4) | 143.7 (+17.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -3.0 (+2.0) | 145.5 (+15.5) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -3.0 (+2.0) | 147.3 (+13.7) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -2.1 (+1.1) | 143.2 (+17.8) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UK 85 – 77 ARK |
| Feb 2, 2025 | ARK 89 – 79 UK |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UK 111 – 102 ARK |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UK 63 – 57 ARK |
| Mar 4, 2023 | UK 88 – 79 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 25-7 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 13-4 |
| Home | 5-6 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#70) | 14.9 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#117) | 2.08 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#83) | 2.68 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#122) | 0.588 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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