Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -163 PSU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +2 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -3.2 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-29.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -1.5 (+3.5) | 142.4 (-24.4) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -2.4 (+4.4) | 141.0 (-23.0) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -1.9 (+3.9) | 143.2 (-25.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -1.7 (+3.7) | 141.4 (-23.4) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | MSU 76 – 72 PSU |
| Jan 16, 2025 | MSU 90 – 85 PSU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | MSU 80 – 72 PSU |
| Jan 5, 2024 | MSU 92 – 61 PSU |
| Dec 7, 2022 | MSU 67 – 58 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-13 | 11-14 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-12 |
| Home | 12-3 | 7-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 73.0 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#88) | 12.1 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#69) | 2.11 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#52) | 3.18 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#141) | 0.579 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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