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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
17–7 on winners
spread MAE 7.7
24 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Loyola Maryland
@
Lafayette
|
+3.4 | 144.8 | 62% | 76–80 | ✓ |
Samford
@
Mercer
|
+8.3 | 159.4 | 77% | 82–89 | ✓ |
Oregon State
@
Colorado
|
+14.3 | 138.4 | 90% | 49–78 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
Norfolk State
|
+9.1 | 150.9 | 80% | 74–64 | ✗ |
Austin Peay
@
UT Martin
|
-10.6 | 146.2 | 17% | 75–76 | ✗ |
Abilene Christian
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
-18.1 | 126.3 | 5% | 82–69 | ✓ |
Nebraska
@
Minnesota
|
+11.2 | 150.3 | 85% | 61–79 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Alcorn State
|
-2.7 | 142.3 | 40% | 67–62 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Alabama A&M
|
+15.8 | 142.7 | 93% | 55–56 | ✓ |
Ohio State
@
Maryland
|
-2.5 | 140.7 | 41% | 73–65 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
Kansas
|
+4.6 | 145.9 | 66% | 66–78 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
UNLV
|
+12.8 | 131.0 | 88% | 64–69 | ✓ |
Jackson State
@
Southern
|
+3.1 | 131.9 | 61% | 57–53 | ✗ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Alabama State
|
+20.2 | 140.7 | 97% | 68–65 | ✗ |
Gonzaga
@
BYU
|
-8.2 | 160.1 | 23% | 82–71 | ✓ |
San José State
@
San Diego State
|
+32.8 | 148.5 | 100% | 54–85 | ✓ |
South Alabama
@
Georgia State
|
+7.2 | 157.7 | 74% | 70–67 | ✗ |
Notre Dame
@
Duke
|
+2.6 | 149.5 | 59% | 93–89 | ✗ |
VCU
@
Dayton
|
-2.7 | 133.1 | 40% | 76–67 | ✓ |
James Madison
@
Elon
|
-8.2 | 141.7 | 23% | 70–61 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
Florida A&M
|
+2.7 | 135.7 | 60% | 47–60 | ✓ |
La Salle
@
St. Bonaventure
|
+13.9 | 133.9 | 90% | 73–86 | ✓ |
Alabama
@
South Carolina
|
-10.4 | 154.6 | 17% | 81–78 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
NC State
|
+0.7 | 150.8 | 52% | 77–68 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.