Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | GAST -225 USA +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +3 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | GAST -6.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (-20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -5.1 (-8.1) | 150.7 (-13.7) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -5.1 (-8.1) | 146.9 (-9.9) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -4.9 (-7.9) | 150.9 (-13.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -5.2 (-8.2) | 150.8 (-13.8) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | USA 69 – 67 GAST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | USA 77 – 51 GAST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | GAST 90 – 76 USA |
| Dec 31, 2022 | GAST 68 – 58 USA |
| Feb 5, 2022 | GAST 69 – 62 USA |
Game Analysis
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