Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -27.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | SDSU -8000 SJSU +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +31 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -33.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -22.2 (+8.8) | 148.6 (-9.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -21.2 (+9.8) | 147.1 (-8.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -30.3 (+0.7) | 146.6 (-7.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -30.5 (+0.5) | 147.9 (-8.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | SDSU 81 – 68 SJSU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | SDSU 69 – 66 SJSU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | SDSU 71 – 68 SJSU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | SDSU 72 – 64 SJSU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | SDSU 81 – 78 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-5 | 5-16 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 3-13 |
| Home | 13-2 | 4-6 |
| Away | 6-2 | 0-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.9 | 82.4 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#19) | -16.7 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#39) | -1.36 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#45) | -1.78 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#11) | 0.403 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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