Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | ALST -2500 MVSU +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MVSU +3 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -21.0 (-24.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -15.3 (-18.3) | 140.0 (-7.0) | 90% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -16.2 (-19.2) | 143.5 (-10.5) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -14.8 (-17.8) | 142.3 (-9.3) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -14.6 (-17.6) | 140.7 (-7.7) | 88% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | ALST 92 – 55 MVSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | ALST 89 – 69 MVSU |
| Feb 18, 2025 | ALST 79 – 56 MVSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ALST 84 – 55 MVSU |
| Feb 20, 2024 | ALST 61 – 46 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-14 | 2-22 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 2-13 |
| Home | 3-6 | 1-5 |
| Away | 1-8 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 56.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 87.4 |
| Massey | -17.8 (#344) | -36.2 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.60 (#332) | -4.50 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.32 (#337) | -6.98 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.361 (#339) | 0.355 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.7% | 34.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 27.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.2% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 16.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 12.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 58.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 60.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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