Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -333 ND +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +4 | 182 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -2.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (+32.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -3.2 (-7.2) | 147.1 (+34.9) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -2.6 (-6.6) | 146.5 (+35.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -3.1 (-7.1) | 147.5 (+34.5) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -3.6 (-7.6) | 146.5 (+35.5) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | DUKE 100 – 56 ND |
| Jan 11, 2025 | DUKE 86 – 78 ND |
| Feb 8, 2024 | DUKE 71 – 53 ND |
| Jan 6, 2024 | DUKE 67 – 59 ND |
| Feb 15, 2023 | DUKE 68 – 64 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 11-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-5 |
| Away | 3-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#68) | 8.2 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#93) | 0.92 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#69) | 1.63 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#144) | 0.513 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 20.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 12.7% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 12.5% |
Game Analysis
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