Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | MER -450 SAM +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +7 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | MER -8.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -7.8 (-0.8) | 155.2 (+15.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -6.0 (+1.0) | 149.9 (+21.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -9.0 (-2.0) | 153.0 (+18.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -8.3 (-1.3) | 154.1 (+16.9) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MER 89 – 86 SAM |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SAM 69 – 49 MER |
| Feb 6, 2025 | SAM 100 – 79 MER |
| Jan 16, 2025 | SAM 75 – 74 MER |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SAM 70 – 57 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 6-13 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 2-9 |
| Home | 9-4 | 4-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 79.6 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#128) | -3.2 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#141) | -0.53 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#133) | -0.48 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#125) | 0.476 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.