Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV -1200 AF +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -13.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -10.3 (-5.3) | 132.7 (+0.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -11.2 (-6.2) | 126.0 (+7.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -10.0 (-5.0) | 129.3 (+3.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -10.2 (-5.2) | 133.1 (-0.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNLV 91 – 66 AF |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNLV 67 – 39 AF |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNLV 68 – 59 AF |
| Feb 12, 2025 | UNLV 77 – 52 AF |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UNLV 77 – 58 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-15 | 5-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 3-17 |
| Home | 8-4 | 3-8 |
| Away | 3-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 58.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#176) | -11.5 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#178) | -1.06 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#186) | -1.72 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#199) | 0.431 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 24.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 4.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 14.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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