Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA -300 TULN +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +10 | 106 | Lost |
| Massey | TLSA -7.7 (-17.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -5.4 (-15.4) | 131.6 (-25.6) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -4.9 (-14.9) | 129.4 (-23.4) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -5.8 (-15.8) | 132.5 (-26.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -6.6 (-16.6) | 131.7 (-25.7) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | TLSA 90 – 56 TULN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TULN 79 – 77 TLSA |
| Feb 2, 2025 | TULN 59 – 56 TLSA |
| Jan 14, 2024 | TULN 94 – 87 TLSA |
| Jan 22, 2023 | TLSA 81 – 79 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-12 | 10-13 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 4-12 |
| Home | 7-5 | 6-6 |
| Away | 4-4 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#109) | -0.8 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#70) | 0.22 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#84) | 0.53 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#126) | 0.461 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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