Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG +100 FUR +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +6 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -1.3 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -1.6 (+4.4) | 139.5 (-17.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -1.6 (+4.4) | 138.5 (-16.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -2.1 (+3.9) | 142.3 (-20.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -1.4 (+4.6) | 138.6 (-16.6) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | FUR 81 – 75 UNCG |
| Feb 8, 2026 | UNCG 67 – 64 FUR |
| Jan 23, 2026 | FUR 89 – 66 UNCG |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNCG 58 – 50 FUR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCG 84 – 67 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 16-9 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-5 |
| Home | 7-3 | 11-1 |
| Away | 10-3 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#105) | 8.6 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#99) | 0.91 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#103) | 1.34 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#69) | 0.554 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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