Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | PROV +140 CONN -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +11 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -1.7 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -0.4 (+10.6) | 135.8 (-6.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -0.8 (+11.8) | 132.4 (-3.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -0.6 (+10.4) | 135.7 (-6.7) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -0.3 (+10.7) | 135.0 (-6.0) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | CONN 87 – 81 PROV |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CONN 103 – 98 PROV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CONN 75 – 63 PROV |
| Jan 5, 2025 | CONN 87 – 84 PROV |
| Mar 10, 2024 | CONN 74 – 60 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 15-8 |
| Conference | 9-10 | 11-6 |
| Home | 8-3 | 7-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 64.6 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#87) | 10.9 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#76) | 1.68 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#81) | 2.43 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#111) | 0.559 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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