Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | TCU -225 ISU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +3 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -8.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (+12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -8.3 (-5.3) | 144.5 (+10.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -6.4 (-3.4) | 142.5 (+12.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -8.4 (-5.4) | 144.0 (+11.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -8.1 (-5.1) | 143.4 (+11.6) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | TCU 62 – 55 ISU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ISU 82 – 52 TCU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ISU 71 – 59 TCU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ISU 73 – 72 TCU |
| Feb 16, 2023 | ISU 70 – 59 TCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-14 | 2-22 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 0-18 |
| Home | 6-7 | 2-10 |
| Away | 3-6 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L18 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#119) | -2.4 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#48) | -1.28 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#66) | -1.64 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#80) | 0.463 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 14.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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