Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | SF -150 PEPP +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +8 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -7.4 (-15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -6.0 (-14.0) | 146.1 (-2.1) | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -4.6 (-12.6) | 147.5 (-3.5) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -3.7 (-11.7) | 148.9 (-4.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SF -6.1 (-14.1) | 147.2 (-3.2) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | SF 80 – 60 PEPP |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SF 80 – 63 PEPP |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SF 92 – 68 PEPP |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SF 80 – 74 PEPP |
| Feb 12, 2023 | SF 88 – 80 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-14 | 15-12 |
| Conference | 4-9 | 7-6 |
| Home | 3-5 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#83) | 2.2 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#115) | 0.54 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#114) | 0.61 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#91) | 0.525 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.8% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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