I've never done bad things. "Ashes to Ashes" - David Bowie
Boise State Broncos
78 – 66
FINAL Conference
UNLV Rebels
Mountain West Conference · ExtraMile Arena · February 12, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread BOIS -9.5 Home covered
O/U 140.5 Over
Money BOIS -450 / UNLV +450
Model Predictions
Spread Total BOIS win
Actual BOIS +12 144 Won
Massey BOIS -15.2 (-3.2) — —
Massey Totals — 144.0 (-0.0) —
Bradley-Terry — — 94% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 96% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML BOIS -12.2 (-0.2) 143.8 (+0.2) 87% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ BOIS -10.6 (+1.4) 137.9 (+6.1) 87% ✓
Baseline Plus ML BOIS -13.8 (-1.8) 141.6 (+2.4) 88% ✓
Baseline ML BOIS -12.7 (-0.7) 142.8 (+1.2) 86% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 14, 2026 UNLV 86 – 83 BOIS
Jan 14, 2026 UNLV 89 – 85 BOIS
Feb 5, 2025 BOIS 71 – 62 UNLV
Jan 8, 2025 BOIS 81 – 59 UNLV
Jan 17, 2024 UNLV 68 – 64 BOIS

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BOIS UNLV
Overall 19-9 12-15
Conference 14-6 8-10
Home 11-1 8-4
Away 6-6 3-7
Neutral 2-2 1-4
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 75.4 67.2
Avg Pts Against 67.4 69.7
Massey 11.3 (#40) -1.3 (#185)
Bradley-Terry 2.23 (#37) 0.01 (#172)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.55 (#49) -0.17 (#180)
RPI 0.623 (#11) 0.489 (#189)
Shooting & Four Factors BOIS UNLV
FG% 46.7% 43.1%
3PT% 34.8% 34.5%
REB / G 36.8 33.5
OREB / G 9.8 9.1
AST / TO 1.30 0.96
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.1% 50.9%
TOV% 16.1% 19.5%
ORB% 28.9% 26.5%
FT Rate 25.4% 16.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.0% 53.3%
Opp TOV% 20.8% 19.1%
DRB% 79.8% 74.1%
Opp FT Rate 22.3% 24.5%

Game Analysis

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