Betting Lines
| Spread | YSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | YSU -225 PFW +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | YSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YSU +14 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | YSU -5.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YSU -4.6 (+9.4) | 151.4 (+2.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YSU -5.3 (+8.7) | 147.8 (+6.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YSU -6.6 (+7.4) | 151.2 (+2.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YSU -4.4 (+9.6) | 152.1 (+1.9) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | YSU 90 – 61 PFW |
| Jan 8, 2026 | PFW 71 – 69 YSU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | YSU 72 – 67 PFW |
| Feb 12, 2025 | YSU 93 – 71 PFW |
| Jan 5, 2025 | PFW 90 – 81 YSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | YSU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-12 | 8-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 6-14 |
| Home | 10-5 | 5-6 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#269) | -8.8 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#256) | -1.56 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#253) | -1.99 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#237) | 0.405 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | YSU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 50.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 40.4% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 58.1% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 25.2% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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