Betting Lines
| Spread | EWU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | MTST +138 EWU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EWU +16 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | EWU -1.3 (-14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -0.4 (-16.4) | 147.5 (+22.5) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EWU -0.1 (-15.9) | 147.4 (+22.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EWU -0.3 (-15.7) | 149.8 (+20.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -0.3 (-16.3) | 149.9 (+20.1) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | EWU 72 – 71 MTST |
| Jan 9, 2026 | MTST 68 – 64 EWU |
| Jan 21, 2025 | MTST 74 – 64 EWU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | EWU 68 – 63 MTST |
| Mar 2, 2024 | EWU 108 – 104 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-10 | 16-8 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 12-3 |
| Home | 5-3 | 7-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#183) | 2.6 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#174) | -0.36 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#181) | -0.27 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#141) | 0.529 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 21.5% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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