Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | MSM +100 LIU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +18 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -3.1 (+14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.6 (-19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -2.5 (+15.5) | 127.5 (-17.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -2.8 (+15.2) | 131.6 (-21.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -2.7 (+15.3) | 131.6 (-21.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -3.0 (+15.0) | 131.9 (-21.9) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2024 | MSM 80 – 72 LIU |
| Dec 23, 2023 | MSM 87 – 59 LIU |
| Feb 19, 2022 | LIU 66 – 61 MSM |
| Jan 7, 2022 | LIU 74 – 57 MSM |
| Feb 12, 2021 | MSM 66 – 60 LIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-11 | 9-9 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-3 | 6-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.2 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#192) | -2.2 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#170) | 0.09 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#160) | -0.00 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#130) | 0.489 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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