Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | MSM -1400 LIU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +28 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -14.6 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -11.8 (+16.2) | 144.7 (+1.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -12.7 (+15.3) | 145.1 (+0.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -14.4 (+13.6) | 143.8 (+2.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -12.9 (+15.1) | 146.6 (-0.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2024 | MSM 80 – 72 LIU |
| Feb 19, 2022 | LIU 66 – 61 MSM |
| Jan 7, 2022 | LIU 74 – 57 MSM |
| Feb 12, 2021 | MSM 64 – 46 LIU |
| Feb 12, 2021 | MSM 66 – 60 LIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 7-22 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 6-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 5-4 |
| Away | 5-13 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#211) | -12.5 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#311) | -2.21 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.35 (#311) | -2.69 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#305) | 0.393 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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