Look out honey, 'cause I'm using technology "Search and Destroy" - Iggy and the Stooges
Knott Arena · December 23, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread MSM -14.5 Home covered
O/U 144.0 Over
Money MSM -1400 / LIU +800
Model Predictions
Spread Total MSM win
Actual MSM +28 146 Won
Massey MSM -14.6 (+13.4)
Massey Totals 149.2 (-3.2)
Bradley-Terry 79%
Weighted B-T 80%
Baseline Plus ML MSM -12.9 (+15.1) 146.6 (-0.6) 88%
Baseline ML MSM -14.4 (+13.6) 143.8 (+2.2) 88%
Baseline Tuned ML MSM -12.7 (+15.3) 145.1 (+0.9) 87%
Efficiency Plus ML MSM -11.8 (+16.2) 144.7 (+1.3) 88%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 19, 2024 MSM 8072 LIU
Feb 19, 2022 LIU 6661 MSM
Jan 7, 2022 LIU 7457 MSM
Feb 12, 2021 MSM 6446 LIU
Feb 12, 2021 MSM 6660 LIU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MSM LIU
Overall 13-19 7-22
Conference 9-11 6-10
Home 8-5 5-4
Away 5-13 1-17
Neutral 0-1 1-1
Last 5 3-2 0-5
Streak L2 L3
Avg Pts For 72.7 66.5
Avg Pts Against 71.8 76.8
Massey -2.4 (#211) -12.5 (#344)
Bradley-Terry -1.79 (#311) -2.21 (#331)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.35 (#311) -2.69 (#323)
RPI 0.417 (#305) 0.393 (#343)
Shooting & Four Factors MSM LIU
FG% 46.0% 39.5%
3PT% 30.6% 29.6%
REB / G 35.4 32.1
OREB / G 11.8 7.5
AST / TO 0.92 0.68
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.8% 44.7%
TOV% 21.5% 21.1%
ORB% 34.4% 20.5%
FT Rate 19.2% 19.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.5% 50.7%
Opp TOV% 21.6% 16.0%
DRB% 69.8% 66.8%
Opp FT Rate 28.2% 30.0%

Game Analysis

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